The Jeffersonian: Politicks, Sports, and Culture

Monday, April 17, 2006

Castro For Mayor in '09?

This has obviously been something that most SA politicos and watchers have talked about at some point and time since June '05, but it seems that Julian Castro seems to get closer and closer to making this a reality.

Since the beginning of 2006, I've heard Julian ask people for vote's, 'should he ever run for Mayor again.' Nothing surprising there, but the real kicker is the word on the street saying that Castro, while speaking with area high school students, clearly stated this past Saturday that he would be a candidate for Mayor in 2009. Now maybe I'm just out of the loop, but this sort of determination so early caught me a little off guard.

You'd think Castro would play coy at least through Hardberger's first term... guess I was wrong.

The question becomes... how does Castro plan to make another run-off, much less win? He's got two young, dynamic city councilmen on the south side of San Antonio- Roland Gutierrez and Richard Perez- waiting in the wings and should one of them run Gutierrez/Perez would shatter the coalition that nearly put Castro on top in 2005. Both are also viewed as much more moderate, pro-business Latinos and would play much better on the voter-rich north side than Julian ever did/will. I'd also believe we'd see an increase in southside turnout for supporting what could be the first ever south sider to become mayor of San Antonio.

And with the assumption that Kevin Wolff would represent the conservative constituency in '09, Julian could destroy his political career by finishing 3rd in a three-way general election race- maybe worse if another self-funded outsider hops in the race.

So here are my questions: How could Castro win? Castro lagged behind in fundraising in '05, anyone have any reason to think that would be better four years later? Where does Julian pick up the votes he'd lose on the southside should Gutierrez/Perez run? Does anyone else think he should've run against Elizondo this time around or in 2010?