The Jeffersonian: Politicks, Sports, and Culture

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Holy Crap

There's a Houston Chronicle poll out giving the early edge in a Lampson-Delay matchup to Nick Lampson. No doubt this is good news but before we all start doing our own version of the Snoopy dance, let's all realize 1) how early in the game this is (a commenter over at Kuff's likens it to getting excited at Lance Berkman hitting a grand slam in the 2nd, a great analogy) and 2) that Lampson is leading 30-22. The poll also has former Republican Congressman Steve Stockman at 11%. If Stockman decides not to run or can't get on the ballot as an Indie, you alot of those votes shift over to Delay.

But there's other stuff to in this poll to find heartening. Nearly half of the respondents(47%) believe that Delay should pull himself off of the ballot, only 21% of people who are looking to vote in the Republican primary are locked up in Delay's camp at this point and time, and 91% of respondents have a lower view of Delay than they did a year ago.

The Lampson camp now has a public poll out to further their message and help them along with people who thought this district to be too Republican to win. Shouldn't hurt their fundraising either. Just an overall good weekend for Team Lampson.

Tip of the hat to Rep. Aaron Pena.

Update, 1:50 am: The Express-News' article on CD-22 and this new poll is up. A couple of things on it:

Lisa Sandberg has the poll numbers at 29.8 (Lampson) to 21.4(Delay) an 8.4 point difference. Is that right? Only four-tenths of a point difference between what the Houston Chronicle had the number (30-22). But that four-tenths of a point puts the poll outside the margin of error (+-4 points), showing a clear statistical lead for Lampson, while the Chronicle's 30-22 puts it right on the margin of error.

Two, Sandberg bought hook, line and sinker into the Tom Delay-as-magnanimous-Republican spin by writing that CD-22 is now, according to observers, no more than 60% Republican. Delay supposedly took in a substantial portion of Dem votes to further a Republican Congressional delegation during the 2003 re-redistricting debacle. As these links will(read this one first) show you, this is completely and utterly wrong. It's a difference of about 3 percent, not the five or six percent (at least) that Sandberg is writing about.

Update, 5:45 pm: Evan of Delay vs. World has his own analysis up. Couple of things to note. First, Evan points out that the 21% Delay shows in the primary match-up includes everyone in the survey- Republicans, Democrats, Independents, etc. It is not a subgroup of those who said they would be voting in the Republican primary. 241 of the respondents stated they would vote in the Republican primary. In the very next question 120 respondents stated they would vote for Tom Delay in the Republican primary. And while there may have been some crossover, it's still too substantial to not note that Delay has nearly half of the 241 respondents who said they would vote for in the Republican primary.

Secondly, Evan is also right that this probably overstates Stockman's support at this time with the way they word the question. Unless Stockman can come up with the money to let everyone know about his prior term in Congress as an uber-conservative Republican most of those votes will bleed back into Delay's column. Good stuff, check it out.