The Jeffersonian: Politicks, Sports, and Culture

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Alvarado Clear Frontrunner?

As ridiculous as that sounds even some rational, level-headed people out there are starting to buy into this talk. It really all stems from 1) Royal Massett calling Rick Perry a virtual lock to win the Governship once again while placing the Democratic nominee- Felix Alvarado- 3rd out of a field of 4 and 2) this SurveyUSA poll showing every Guv candidates favorables/unfavorables.

First, let me say this- Royal Massett's a hack. I can usually put up with the Bill Miller/Mike Baselice 'token Republican consultant that we need to get to round out our news article' analysis because it's generally good, if not slightly obvious, Republican analysis (although Baselice's idea that half of the state is already Republican thereby making it the job of any statewide Repub candidate to get merely one swing voter to side with him/her for a simple majority is ridiculous). But there are countless articles where once I read the name Royal Massett I stop reading for several paragraphs just to make sure I don't read the blather that comes out of his mouth.

Secondly, that fav/unfavs poll comes so far out of left field Shoeless Joe Jackson couldn't have even ran that baby down. How about WOAI giving us a poll on name ID first? Just in case anybody forgot, it goes: you have to know who a candidate is before you can dis/like him/her before you can vote for said candiate. And contrary to what some people have also been saying/typing, every single Democratic candidate that they poll is well within the margin of error. So no, Felix Alvarado's commanding 2-point 'favorables' lead over Chris Bell is not the end of the world. Chris Bell's still the frontrunner and unless Gammage can outraise him over the next few weeks and put up some ads to counteract Bell's year long meet the people effort, he's gonna win.

Thirdly, does anyone else here touch the latent racism in this idea that Alvarado is the 'front-runner' right now? He's a Latino and alot of Latinos vote in the Democratic primary, ergo, we'll all vote for Alvarado. Yeah, that's not how it works. Yes, some Latinos will vote for him. Yes, some Latinos who don't know any of the candidates from Adam will vote for Alvarado because he has a Latino surname, but Alvarado isn't anything like Victor Morales. He doesn't have the compelling story- being challenged by his students to run for office himself, accepting and then doing it all out of his white pickup. And what of his charisma? Nor is he, you know, actively campaigning. Morales caught lightning in a bottle in '96, don't think that's happening this year.

Finally, the real story of that SurveyUSA poll should be that that Perry's fav/unfavs numbers are 42/37. Why nobody's picking up on that is suprising. Maybe it's because the actual numbers aren't all that surprising. But those numbers are only gonna get worse from here on out.