The Jeffersonian: Politicks, Sports, and Culture

Monday, August 08, 2005

Frost and Delay

Kuff has two completely separate, but great, anlytical posts on the two congressional races that captivated the Dallas and Houston areas.

In the Frost post, Charles attempts to unravel the "Frost effect" on down ballot Dem races in Dallas county. His conclusions?

From this, it would seem fair to conclude that on a performance basis, it didn't matter to Garcia and Valdez if they were in Page's precincts or Frost's - they each did about as well relative to the national ticket in each. Therefore, if there was any Frost effect at all, it would have to come from turnout alone.

There's a whole lotta numbers to back up that claim, go check it out for yourself.

As far as Delay, Charles once again gives us a comphrehensive look at a congressional district. It just so happens this one hold's the House Majority leader. What to take away from this post?

The bottom line here is that in 2002, well before the TRMPAC and Abramoff scandals and the Ethics Committee admonishments, Tom DeLay lagged the statewide RPI in his district by two and a half points. He did better percentagewise against only David Dewhurst, who had the closest win of all GOP statewides, and Steven Wayne Smith, who drew establishment GOP ire for knocking off Perry appointee Xavier Rodriguez in the primary. He drew fewer votes than everyone but those two and Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. All that against an underfunded and essentially unknown Democrat.

Note two things: One, the SOS overestimated the RPI in CD22 by three points. Two, DeLay's underperformance is now almost eight points. Neither of these bodes well for DeLay. How much bigger will his performance gap be next year, after another cycle of pounding on him for the corrupt climate he enables?

Once again, there's a whole lotta numbers to back this up, go check it out.