Poll Analysis
The first thing that stands out in my mind from the SurveyUSA poll(s)- Castro's support is absolutely static. The very first SurveyUSA poll that came out showed Castro with 42 percent of the vote. Over two months that number crept up to 46%. Now with the first run-off poll out, Castro's support ekes up a single point. That's five points in over two months.
The second thing? The voters don't think a leopard can change its spots. No matter what sort of spin/repositioning the Castro campaign has tried to with this 'fiscal conservative' thing, the voters haven't believed it for a second. Schubert's supporters have switched to Hardberger over Castro by an 8 to 1 margin.
Number 3? The Hardberger campaign has made a stronger dent in Castro's Democrat/Hispanic coalition than Castro has into Hardberger's White/Republican coalition. While Hardberger loses the Democratic and Hispanic vote by by 36 points each, Castro loses the Republican and White vote by 48 and 50 points respectively. Hardberger has a definite credibility edge over Castro.
The fourth, and final, point that stands out... I think this poll still understates Hardberger's support. As I have said before, Hispanic turnout has never been above 45% of the total vote. This poll has Hispanics as 48% of the vote; one point below what they believed Hispanic turnout would look like in the general, but still a few points too high. This hurts Castro, probably pulling away a couple of points from him and adding them directly to Hardberger's numbers. If the election were held today, I think the Judge would win 52-48.
Finally, let's be real clear, this is all very much within the margin of error. Statistically speaking, it's a dead heat. But if you're a betting man(or woman), you always go with Big Mo', and Phil definitely has that.
The second thing? The voters don't think a leopard can change its spots. No matter what sort of spin/repositioning the Castro campaign has tried to with this 'fiscal conservative' thing, the voters haven't believed it for a second. Schubert's supporters have switched to Hardberger over Castro by an 8 to 1 margin.
Number 3? The Hardberger campaign has made a stronger dent in Castro's Democrat/Hispanic coalition than Castro has into Hardberger's White/Republican coalition. While Hardberger loses the Democratic and Hispanic vote by by 36 points each, Castro loses the Republican and White vote by 48 and 50 points respectively. Hardberger has a definite credibility edge over Castro.
The fourth, and final, point that stands out... I think this poll still understates Hardberger's support. As I have said before, Hispanic turnout has never been above 45% of the total vote. This poll has Hispanics as 48% of the vote; one point below what they believed Hispanic turnout would look like in the general, but still a few points too high. This hurts Castro, probably pulling away a couple of points from him and adding them directly to Hardberger's numbers. If the election were held today, I think the Judge would win 52-48.
Finally, let's be real clear, this is all very much within the margin of error. Statistically speaking, it's a dead heat. But if you're a betting man(or woman), you always go with Big Mo', and Phil definitely has that.
posted by Cincinnatus at
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
