The Jeffersonian: Politicks, Sports, and Culture

Thursday, April 14, 2005

New Mayor's Poll

SurveyUSA/WOAI has released their new mayoral poll. The numbers are- with the March poll numbers in parenthesis-

Castro- 43% (45%)
Hardberger- 28% (28%)
Schubert- 22% (15%)

Hardberger's numbers have stayed the same according to this poll, while Castro's numbers have dropped a statistically insignificant 2 percentage points. Schubert's numbers have jumped 7 points.

I'm searching for a link to find the whole poll and start pouring over the crosstabs, but until then this is about all I can tell you right now.

Apparently, TJ Connolly has been crowing about these numbers on talk radio already so let's look at his predictions versus mine versus the actual poll results.

TJ Connolly
Castro- 46
Hardberger- 25
Schubert- 21

Castro- 41-42
Hardberger- 32-33
Schubert- 21

I predict Castro's number alot closer, Connolly predicts Hardberger's number closer (although we're both several points off), and we're both 1 point off on Schubert's numbers. So what is he crowing about?

More anaylysis as soon as I get a link and the crosstabs.

Update: Some more numbers for you. Castro takes 60% of the Democratic vote (I would think that Hardberger takes nearly all of the remaining 40%), while Schubert and Hardberger split the Republican vote.