The Most Important 2005 Race
no one is paying attention to. In less than 50 days, the 8th largest city in the US- San Antonio, Texas- chooses it's next mayor. There are three candidates in this race, two avowed Democrats and one conservative Republican. As this race enters the home stretch, I plan to give you-at the very least- weekly updates. But for now let's give catch you all up on what you've missed.
The City of San Antonio has the most restrictive term limits in the nation- 2 tw0-year terms on both the City Council and the Mayor's office... and then a lifetime ban on running for city office again. These term limits, ushered into San Antonio in the early '90s, have continually brought ineffective leadership and a short-sighted Council that has- in recent years- brought the convictions and resignations of three councilmen on bribery and fraud charges and the investigation of a 4th councilman (a former policeman) for possible mishaps and misdeeds while a police officer. This, plus the perception of poor leadership on a variety of parochial issues, has brought a groundswell of rumbling against the current mayor (but curiously not against any one councilperson) and a 'throw the bum(s) out' mentality.
Which brings us to the current Mayoral race. Two councilmen plus a former Chief Justice of a State Court of Appeals are the major candidates. More about each candidate below.
Julian Castro- The youngest candidate in the race (30 years old), Julian Castro is, by all accounts, the current leader. Educated at Stanford University and Harvard Law School, at 26 years old he was the youngest person ever elected to the San Antonio City Council. CNN's Carlos Watson crowned Castro as one of the Fab 5 in 2005, calling him Texas' Barack Obama. Having declared for office about one year ago, Castro has- by all accounts- built the best grassroots organization of any of the candidates to date. He has however, had trouble raising money. He reported having raised over $100,000 at the end of 2005, with about $90,000 in the bank. Castro has had a tough time finding money in San Antonio and has had to travel to Houston, Dallas, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington DC, and New York city for fundraisers organized by his colleagues from Stanford and Harvard Law School.
Castro, because of decent name-recognition and a good ground game, will probably need to raise the least amount of money. Political insiders project him to raise about $350,000 at the end of the day. Just enough to do some targeted media. Castro does however, have some perceived weaknesses. First and foremost is his age. Ineffective leadership by current Mayor Ed Garza has led some to question whether another young mayor (Garza was 31 when he was first elected 4 years ago) would be the best route for the city. Secondly, some wonder whether Castro would use the Mayor's office solely as a stepping stone for higher office. Castro has also developed a reputation for being anti-business; in large part for his stand against a PGA Village Golf Course proposal that was being built directly over San Antonio's sole source of water.
Castro is spending an inordinate amount of time in the poorer- and more minority- portions of San Antonio, ignoring the richer, whiter- and vote rich- North side. For his efforts, the most recent SurveyUSA poll has shown Castro with a clear lead over his two major opponents, and overwhelming support among Hispanic voters (64%), a plurality among African-American voters (43%), and in a statistical tie for first among Asian-American voters (36%). Whether this will lead to a Castro victory remains to be seen. Castro also recently received the endorsement of the local AFL-CIO Central Labor Council.
Castro was also the first on the air, with with one week of TV ads going up the week before Bush's 2nd inauguration. His second ad buy ($60,000 worth) took place this week, with new ads having gone up this past Sunday on all the major networks in english, plus on the spanish-language Univision affiliate.
Phil Hardberger- The oldest candidate in the race (70 years old), Phil Hardberger is a former Air Force pilot, former executive assistant to Sargent Shriver while he was at the Peace Corps (JFK administration) and the Office of Economic Opportunity (LBJ administration), and the former Chief Justice for the Texas 4th Court of Appeals. After his time in DC up through his service as Chief Justice, he also set up a well recognized law practice defending such citizens as envrionmentalists and Hispanic civil rights leaders, while also serving as counsel to the City of San Antonio's Development Agency. Until recently (more will be explained below), he was seen as having won the fundraising race, in large part because of his $300,000 personal loan to his campaign.
Hardberger will need every penny of it as his name recognition was the lowest of the three candidates at the outset. He was on the air for three weeks in February/early March with what were quite possibly some the worst produced television ads ever seen. This was also about the time that the Hardberger campaign had a minor staff shakeup, adding political consultant Christian Archer as Campaign Manager. For those Texans who may remember him, Archer was the Political Director for the Tony Sanchez gubernatorial campaign, part of the Will Wynn's campaign 'brain trust' in his successful campaign for the Mayor of Austin, and the Deputy Campaign manager for Bill White's successful campaign for Mayor of Houston. The Hardberger campaign is also the only major Mayoral campaign running a true citywide campaign- in large part out of necessity.
Since then, Hardberger has bought three weeks of air time (beginning last week) on the spanish-language Univision affiliate, attempting to sway older Hispanic voters and cut into Castro's lead. Hardberger is also holding a press conference this Thursday to unveil his platform (a little late in the game?), after which new ads will go up on the major english-language networks. Hardberger has the support of Bertha Rodriguez, widow of the late Congressman Henry B. Gonzalez, the Asian-American Chamber of Commerce, the Bexar County Deputy Sheriff's Association, and the San Antonio Police Officer's Association. Hardberger was recruited into this race by those who believed that neither of the other two candidates would be an effective mayor. Two of Hardberger's strongest liabilities are his age and his lack of city government experience.
Carroll Schubert- Carroll Schubert is the Republican in this technically non-partisan race. He represents one of the most prosperous and fastest-growing districts in the city. A former executive assistant to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, State Senate staffer, and Bexar County Deputy District Attorney, Schubert is the 3rd lawyer out of this three man field. He is also assumed to be the current fundraising leader after having raised $330,000 at a March 2nd fundraiser which is being called the largest single political fundraiser in the history of San Antonio. Schubert, who had raised over $210,000 by the end of 2004, already has another major fundraiser scheduled for March 29, and it is rumored that this fundraiser (with a guest list 2,000 strong) could equal the March 2nd fundraiser. Because of this, Schubert was able to place his first media buy two weeks ago and will be on the air- and in the mail- continuously through election day. Schubert, however, is the only candidate to not have a spanish-language commercial up and running.
However, because he has waited so long to put his media campaign together, he's now out in 3rd place with less than 50 days remaining. Schubert's strategy seems to bank on eeking by Hardberger for 2nd place and hoping that Castro does not receive a simple majority in the general election so that he can duke it out with him in the run-off. In addition to this, Schubert has not made much of a foray outside of his comfort areas- the richer, white North side- and into what is seen as 'Castro territory'- everywhere else. But because so few people have heard of him up until now, it is too hard to tell whether this is a winning proposition at this point and time. But the fact that very few people have heard of Schubert, seems to make this a losing one right now.
At the beginning of this year Schubert also had his own minor staff shakeup, bringing in Scott Pool as campaign manager. Pool is known here in Texas as being the campaign manager for the only Republican congressional candidate to lose a race against the Texas 5 (Arlene Wohlgemuth vs. Chet Edwards). Pool has also already brought his Republican style of campaigning into this mayoral election with a push poll. The push poll described Castro as a 'Westside councilman' (presumably a denigrating term as the West side of San Antonio is one of the poorest sides of town) but saved much of its vitriol- 15 out of the 20 questions asked- for Hardberger. Which lends credence to the theory of Schubert's play for 2nd right now.
Although no major San Antonio organization has endorsed Schubert yet, Governor Rick Perry- he of the extremely low approval ratings- has. While certainly a boon for Schubert with the Republican base, one may wonder if that sword cuts the other way with the rest of the city. Some of Schubert's perceived weaknesses are that he comes off gruff and arrogant when speaking with citizens, and his- or his campaign's- reluctance to personally engage 2/3 of the city.
My Take
The most recent, publicly released poll, shows Castro with a 17 point lead over Hardberger 45-28, with Schubert in 3rd place with 15% of the vote. I cannot believe for the life of me, that only 8% of likely voters are undecided at this time. I believe that number is much larger than the poll shows. I believe that Castro is without a doubt the leader right now with somewhere between 35-40% of the vote. Hardberger is in 2nd with 25-30%, and Schubert is in 3rd with 15%.
At some point and time Schubert is going to have to start taking shots at Hardberger if he wants to pass him, and Castro is going to have to work hard to keep Hardberger from peeling away any of those older Hispanics- which his spanish-language ads with Bertha Gonzalez (widow of Henry B.) are specifically designed to do. But in a typically low turnout race (the two largest turnouts for mayoral elections in the last 25 years have never surpassed 15% turnout) I think this may be indicative of the general election day ceiling for Castro.
Already pulling in two-thirds of the Hispanic vote, and in third place with white voters even though one candidate-Schubert- had yet to go on the air when this poll was taken, Castro is banking on a disproportionate Hispanic turnout. Either that or Castro is banking on Schubert being in the run-off. I do believe that, barring any major catastrophe, Castro is in a run-off at least.
I also think that unless Schubert begins to engage the rest of San Antonio, he will be left off of the run-off ballot. Hardberger's Asian-American Chamber of Commerce endorsement should allow him to win the Asian-American vote by a plurality (although a very small percentage of the vote to begin with, still a noted accomplishment when every vote will count) and he should split the white vote with Schubert. But Hardberger's respectable showings with Hispanic and African-American voters will be the difference. And if this happens then Castro is in trouble for the run-off as Schubert voters are closer to Hardberger on the political spectrum than they are to Castro.
But all of this is just conjecture- at least right now. Schubert, if his March 29th fundraiser goes as well as planned, will have more money than God (somewhere around 400-500k) 40 days out and will be able to throw down a media blitz unseen in San Antonio politics. Or Castro's field operation could just blow everyone out of the water on election day and gain the simple majority even with his two opponents raising over $1.5 mil combined. Or Hardberger's stay-the-middle course could appeal to everyone who believes that Castro is too young, and that Schubert doesn't have what it takes to run a city that is 2/3 minority. We'll just have to wait and see.
The City of San Antonio has the most restrictive term limits in the nation- 2 tw0-year terms on both the City Council and the Mayor's office... and then a lifetime ban on running for city office again. These term limits, ushered into San Antonio in the early '90s, have continually brought ineffective leadership and a short-sighted Council that has- in recent years- brought the convictions and resignations of three councilmen on bribery and fraud charges and the investigation of a 4th councilman (a former policeman) for possible mishaps and misdeeds while a police officer. This, plus the perception of poor leadership on a variety of parochial issues, has brought a groundswell of rumbling against the current mayor (but curiously not against any one councilperson) and a 'throw the bum(s) out' mentality.
Which brings us to the current Mayoral race. Two councilmen plus a former Chief Justice of a State Court of Appeals are the major candidates. More about each candidate below.
Julian Castro- The youngest candidate in the race (30 years old), Julian Castro is, by all accounts, the current leader. Educated at Stanford University and Harvard Law School, at 26 years old he was the youngest person ever elected to the San Antonio City Council. CNN's Carlos Watson crowned Castro as one of the Fab 5 in 2005, calling him Texas' Barack Obama. Having declared for office about one year ago, Castro has- by all accounts- built the best grassroots organization of any of the candidates to date. He has however, had trouble raising money. He reported having raised over $100,000 at the end of 2005, with about $90,000 in the bank. Castro has had a tough time finding money in San Antonio and has had to travel to Houston, Dallas, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington DC, and New York city for fundraisers organized by his colleagues from Stanford and Harvard Law School.
Castro, because of decent name-recognition and a good ground game, will probably need to raise the least amount of money. Political insiders project him to raise about $350,000 at the end of the day. Just enough to do some targeted media. Castro does however, have some perceived weaknesses. First and foremost is his age. Ineffective leadership by current Mayor Ed Garza has led some to question whether another young mayor (Garza was 31 when he was first elected 4 years ago) would be the best route for the city. Secondly, some wonder whether Castro would use the Mayor's office solely as a stepping stone for higher office. Castro has also developed a reputation for being anti-business; in large part for his stand against a PGA Village Golf Course proposal that was being built directly over San Antonio's sole source of water.
Castro is spending an inordinate amount of time in the poorer- and more minority- portions of San Antonio, ignoring the richer, whiter- and vote rich- North side. For his efforts, the most recent SurveyUSA poll has shown Castro with a clear lead over his two major opponents, and overwhelming support among Hispanic voters (64%), a plurality among African-American voters (43%), and in a statistical tie for first among Asian-American voters (36%). Whether this will lead to a Castro victory remains to be seen. Castro also recently received the endorsement of the local AFL-CIO Central Labor Council.
Castro was also the first on the air, with with one week of TV ads going up the week before Bush's 2nd inauguration. His second ad buy ($60,000 worth) took place this week, with new ads having gone up this past Sunday on all the major networks in english, plus on the spanish-language Univision affiliate.
Phil Hardberger- The oldest candidate in the race (70 years old), Phil Hardberger is a former Air Force pilot, former executive assistant to Sargent Shriver while he was at the Peace Corps (JFK administration) and the Office of Economic Opportunity (LBJ administration), and the former Chief Justice for the Texas 4th Court of Appeals. After his time in DC up through his service as Chief Justice, he also set up a well recognized law practice defending such citizens as envrionmentalists and Hispanic civil rights leaders, while also serving as counsel to the City of San Antonio's Development Agency. Until recently (more will be explained below), he was seen as having won the fundraising race, in large part because of his $300,000 personal loan to his campaign.
Hardberger will need every penny of it as his name recognition was the lowest of the three candidates at the outset. He was on the air for three weeks in February/early March with what were quite possibly some the worst produced television ads ever seen. This was also about the time that the Hardberger campaign had a minor staff shakeup, adding political consultant Christian Archer as Campaign Manager. For those Texans who may remember him, Archer was the Political Director for the Tony Sanchez gubernatorial campaign, part of the Will Wynn's campaign 'brain trust' in his successful campaign for the Mayor of Austin, and the Deputy Campaign manager for Bill White's successful campaign for Mayor of Houston. The Hardberger campaign is also the only major Mayoral campaign running a true citywide campaign- in large part out of necessity.
Since then, Hardberger has bought three weeks of air time (beginning last week) on the spanish-language Univision affiliate, attempting to sway older Hispanic voters and cut into Castro's lead. Hardberger is also holding a press conference this Thursday to unveil his platform (a little late in the game?), after which new ads will go up on the major english-language networks. Hardberger has the support of Bertha Rodriguez, widow of the late Congressman Henry B. Gonzalez, the Asian-American Chamber of Commerce, the Bexar County Deputy Sheriff's Association, and the San Antonio Police Officer's Association. Hardberger was recruited into this race by those who believed that neither of the other two candidates would be an effective mayor. Two of Hardberger's strongest liabilities are his age and his lack of city government experience.
Carroll Schubert- Carroll Schubert is the Republican in this technically non-partisan race. He represents one of the most prosperous and fastest-growing districts in the city. A former executive assistant to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, State Senate staffer, and Bexar County Deputy District Attorney, Schubert is the 3rd lawyer out of this three man field. He is also assumed to be the current fundraising leader after having raised $330,000 at a March 2nd fundraiser which is being called the largest single political fundraiser in the history of San Antonio. Schubert, who had raised over $210,000 by the end of 2004, already has another major fundraiser scheduled for March 29, and it is rumored that this fundraiser (with a guest list 2,000 strong) could equal the March 2nd fundraiser. Because of this, Schubert was able to place his first media buy two weeks ago and will be on the air- and in the mail- continuously through election day. Schubert, however, is the only candidate to not have a spanish-language commercial up and running.
However, because he has waited so long to put his media campaign together, he's now out in 3rd place with less than 50 days remaining. Schubert's strategy seems to bank on eeking by Hardberger for 2nd place and hoping that Castro does not receive a simple majority in the general election so that he can duke it out with him in the run-off. In addition to this, Schubert has not made much of a foray outside of his comfort areas- the richer, white North side- and into what is seen as 'Castro territory'- everywhere else. But because so few people have heard of him up until now, it is too hard to tell whether this is a winning proposition at this point and time. But the fact that very few people have heard of Schubert, seems to make this a losing one right now.
At the beginning of this year Schubert also had his own minor staff shakeup, bringing in Scott Pool as campaign manager. Pool is known here in Texas as being the campaign manager for the only Republican congressional candidate to lose a race against the Texas 5 (Arlene Wohlgemuth vs. Chet Edwards). Pool has also already brought his Republican style of campaigning into this mayoral election with a push poll. The push poll described Castro as a 'Westside councilman' (presumably a denigrating term as the West side of San Antonio is one of the poorest sides of town) but saved much of its vitriol- 15 out of the 20 questions asked- for Hardberger. Which lends credence to the theory of Schubert's play for 2nd right now.
Although no major San Antonio organization has endorsed Schubert yet, Governor Rick Perry- he of the extremely low approval ratings- has. While certainly a boon for Schubert with the Republican base, one may wonder if that sword cuts the other way with the rest of the city. Some of Schubert's perceived weaknesses are that he comes off gruff and arrogant when speaking with citizens, and his- or his campaign's- reluctance to personally engage 2/3 of the city.
My Take
The most recent, publicly released poll, shows Castro with a 17 point lead over Hardberger 45-28, with Schubert in 3rd place with 15% of the vote. I cannot believe for the life of me, that only 8% of likely voters are undecided at this time. I believe that number is much larger than the poll shows. I believe that Castro is without a doubt the leader right now with somewhere between 35-40% of the vote. Hardberger is in 2nd with 25-30%, and Schubert is in 3rd with 15%.
At some point and time Schubert is going to have to start taking shots at Hardberger if he wants to pass him, and Castro is going to have to work hard to keep Hardberger from peeling away any of those older Hispanics- which his spanish-language ads with Bertha Gonzalez (widow of Henry B.) are specifically designed to do. But in a typically low turnout race (the two largest turnouts for mayoral elections in the last 25 years have never surpassed 15% turnout) I think this may be indicative of the general election day ceiling for Castro.
Already pulling in two-thirds of the Hispanic vote, and in third place with white voters even though one candidate-Schubert- had yet to go on the air when this poll was taken, Castro is banking on a disproportionate Hispanic turnout. Either that or Castro is banking on Schubert being in the run-off. I do believe that, barring any major catastrophe, Castro is in a run-off at least.
I also think that unless Schubert begins to engage the rest of San Antonio, he will be left off of the run-off ballot. Hardberger's Asian-American Chamber of Commerce endorsement should allow him to win the Asian-American vote by a plurality (although a very small percentage of the vote to begin with, still a noted accomplishment when every vote will count) and he should split the white vote with Schubert. But Hardberger's respectable showings with Hispanic and African-American voters will be the difference. And if this happens then Castro is in trouble for the run-off as Schubert voters are closer to Hardberger on the political spectrum than they are to Castro.
But all of this is just conjecture- at least right now. Schubert, if his March 29th fundraiser goes as well as planned, will have more money than God (somewhere around 400-500k) 40 days out and will be able to throw down a media blitz unseen in San Antonio politics. Or Castro's field operation could just blow everyone out of the water on election day and gain the simple majority even with his two opponents raising over $1.5 mil combined. Or Hardberger's stay-the-middle course could appeal to everyone who believes that Castro is too young, and that Schubert doesn't have what it takes to run a city that is 2/3 minority. We'll just have to wait and see.
posted by Cincinnatus at
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
